It's true! That was a great article! I'm glad to see your data supports most of my impressions (the strength of R/U/G decks which I, too, had foreseen; U/R's sort of hidden strength; W/U's popularity over efficiency).
The only thing that kind of surprised me was how low Black's win percentage actually was, because I've played quite a few Black decks and never ended below 2-1 yet. I guess there's been another guy putting the bad Black cards into his deck in those drafts.
As I also mentioned on Twitter, I think you're a little too high on Mist Raven, but I can understand why you're doing that, because most people probably undervalue it. What's your take on Into the Void vs Mist Raven?
Mist Raven over Into the Void. I think that Into the Void is a perfectly fine proxy for Mist Raven, but the Raven gets the bonus interaction with all the soulbond and flicker effects. But Into the Void is also one of the best uncommons in the set.
I think the main thing with black is that you need to be basically the only one in the color. It's not that it can't win, it can be very powerful, especially with mono-black (which I couldn't cover in the article, since I didn't have a large enough sample size). Basically, if you are all or almost all black, there is a good chance that you will win.
It's the same thing with RW. The best RW deck will beat everything else in the format. The problem is that you have to have a very specific RW deck in order to make that work.
WU is only good if you get a bunch of Mist Ravens... but then, what isn't good if you have a bunch of Mist Ravens?
True, true... I thought of another hard pick! Druid's Familiar vs. Deadeye Navigator? Both of them are obviously great and in the right colors, but which one do you pick P1P1? I take the Familiar because it costs 4 to cast instead of 6, but I could understand if someone would want the Navigator - he's good if you have a bunch of Mist Ravens!
I definitely take the Deadeye Navigator. I realize how strong Druid's Familiar is, but Deadeye Navigator is just one of the best rares in the format. I've seen him in play roughly two dozen times, and I've only seen one person lose after casting him. That player had mulliganned to 4 in that game, and because of Deadeye Navigator, he was almost able to pull out a win, but his opponent topdecked a Bonfire of the Damned for exactsies the turn before he would have died.
Interesting - not considering potential other cards in the pack, I'd be tempted to take the Familiar. I guess since it's P1P1 you can draft around the pick to try and ensure that you'll get to 6 mana reliably. I just really like being aggressive!
Super cool article. The engineer in me loves the data and the kid in me loves the cards! My only wonder is if the data would be any different if it came from 8-4 drafts rather than release tournaments. Still pretty awesome!
I'm sure the data would be different. As soon as you add in another variable, it will inevitably change the data. One of the things that I have seen from people that draft 64-man drafts is that they tend to be overconfident, overinformed, and stubborn. Instead of being the people that form their own opinions, they are the kind of people to hear what the pros say, and just draft those cards. Also, almost every match in a 64-man ends with one player yelling at the other about how lucky he or she is. Basically, they are the failed PTQ grinders.
It's true! That was a great article! I'm glad to see your data supports most of my impressions (the strength of R/U/G decks which I, too, had foreseen; U/R's sort of hidden strength; W/U's popularity over efficiency).
ReplyDeleteThe only thing that kind of surprised me was how low Black's win percentage actually was, because I've played quite a few Black decks and never ended below 2-1 yet. I guess there's been another guy putting the bad Black cards into his deck in those drafts.
As I also mentioned on Twitter, I think you're a little too high on Mist Raven, but I can understand why you're doing that, because most people probably undervalue it. What's your take on Into the Void vs Mist Raven?
Keep up the good work, Matthew!
Mist Raven over Into the Void. I think that Into the Void is a perfectly fine proxy for Mist Raven, but the Raven gets the bonus interaction with all the soulbond and flicker effects. But Into the Void is also one of the best uncommons in the set.
ReplyDeleteI think the main thing with black is that you need to be basically the only one in the color. It's not that it can't win, it can be very powerful, especially with mono-black (which I couldn't cover in the article, since I didn't have a large enough sample size). Basically, if you are all or almost all black, there is a good chance that you will win.
It's the same thing with RW. The best RW deck will beat everything else in the format. The problem is that you have to have a very specific RW deck in order to make that work.
WU is only good if you get a bunch of Mist Ravens... but then, what isn't good if you have a bunch of Mist Ravens?
True, true... I thought of another hard pick! Druid's Familiar vs. Deadeye Navigator? Both of them are obviously great and in the right colors, but which one do you pick P1P1? I take the Familiar because it costs 4 to cast instead of 6, but I could understand if someone would want the Navigator - he's good if you have a bunch of Mist Ravens!
ReplyDeleteI definitely take the Deadeye Navigator. I realize how strong Druid's Familiar is, but Deadeye Navigator is just one of the best rares in the format. I've seen him in play roughly two dozen times, and I've only seen one person lose after casting him. That player had mulliganned to 4 in that game, and because of Deadeye Navigator, he was almost able to pull out a win, but his opponent topdecked a Bonfire of the Damned for exactsies the turn before he would have died.
ReplyDeleteInteresting - not considering potential other cards in the pack, I'd be tempted to take the Familiar. I guess since it's P1P1 you can draft around the pick to try and ensure that you'll get to 6 mana reliably. I just really like being aggressive!
ReplyDeleteSuper cool article. The engineer in me loves the data and the kid in me loves the cards! My only wonder is if the data would be any different if it came from 8-4 drafts rather than release tournaments. Still pretty awesome!
ReplyDeleteI'm sure the data would be different. As soon as you add in another variable, it will inevitably change the data. One of the things that I have seen from people that draft 64-man drafts is that they tend to be overconfident, overinformed, and stubborn. Instead of being the people that form their own opinions, they are the kind of people to hear what the pros say, and just draft those cards. Also, almost every match in a 64-man ends with one player yelling at the other about how lucky he or she is. Basically, they are the failed PTQ grinders.
Delete